SpaceX Stock: Market Valuation Set to Surpass Amazon After 3 Days

SpaceX's stock has surged for a third consecutive trading day, with shares indicated to open around $213 on Tuesday — an 11% jump that would push the company's market capitalization past $2.8 trillion, overtaking Amazon and making SpaceX the fifth most valuable company on the planet. The rally, which began with the largest IPO in history on Friday, has added roughly $1 trillion in market value in just three trading sessions.

The numbers are staggering. SpaceX raised $75 billion in its initial offering at a valuation of $1.8 trillion. Underwriters exercised the full greenshoe option on Monday, bringing the total raised to $85 billion. By Monday's close, the company was already worth $2.5 trillion — ahead of Broadcom, Meta, and Berkshire Hathaway, and nearly $1 trillion more than Musk's other public company, Tesla.

**Three Days, Three Massive Moves**

Day 1: SpaceX shares opened at $85 and closed near $160, a nearly 90% first-day pop that exceeded even the most optimistic Wall Street forecasts. Day 2: Another 20% gain, pushing past the $2.5 trillion mark. Day 3: Another double-digit percentage move indicated at the open.

The velocity of this rally is nearly unprecedented. Even the 2024 ARM Holdings IPO, which saw a strong first-day pop, didn't sustain this kind of momentum. The closest comparison might be Nvidia's 2023 rally, but that played out over months, not three days.

**The Bull Case: Why Investors Keep Buying**

SpaceX bulls point to several compelling factors. First, the company dominates the global launch market, with its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets accounting for over 80% of all commercial payload deliveries to orbit in 2025. Starlink has grown to over 4 million subscribers across 100+ countries, generating recurring revenue that analysts project could reach $20 billion annually by 2028.

Second, the Starship program represents what bulls consider the single biggest optionality in any public company. If Starship achieves regular, cost-effective orbital flights — and recent test flights suggest it's getting close — it could fundamentally reshape global logistics, space tourism, and even intercontinental travel.

Third, Musk's track record with Tesla, where shares rose over 1,000% from 2020 to 2024, gives some investors confidence that the story will only get bigger. "You don't bet against Elon's ability to tell a story and deliver just enough to keep the story going," one portfolio manager told CoreNewsDaily on condition of anonymity.

**The Bear Case: "The Biggest Meme Stock in Town"

The skeptics are equally vocal. "It is a probably speculative bubble (though in theory, it is not a bubble until it bursts)," wrote Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, in a Tuesday morning note. "People are buying SpaceX in the expectation that others will buy too and push the price higher — that's speculation. The risk is that one day, someone will say, 'Hey, the Emperor is naked,' and on that day, the company's fundamentals won't be there to stop the sell-off."

The fundamentals argument is straightforward: SpaceX generated approximately $15 billion in revenue in 2025. At a $2.8 trillion valuation, that's a price-to-sales ratio of roughly 187x. For comparison, Apple trades at about 9x sales, and even Nvidia — the AI darling — trades at about 25x sales.

Another concern is corporate governance. Musk serves as CEO of both SpaceX and Tesla, runs xAI, owns X (formerly Twitter), and now oversees the $60 billion Cursor acquisition. The risk of divided attention is real, and Tesla shareholders have already raised concerns about resource allocation across Musk's empire.

**The Cursor Acquisition Factor**

Monday's announcement that SpaceX is proceeding with its $60 billion acquisition of Cursor added fuel to both sides of the debate. Bulls see it as a strategic masterstroke that gives SpaceX a developer tools moat. Bears see it as a $60 billion bet on a company generating roughly $500 million in annual revenue — a 120x revenue multiple that rivals the most speculative deals of the dot-com era.

The deal is expected to close in Q3 2026, and its success or failure will be a major factor in whether SpaceX can sustain its current valuation.

**What This Means For You**

For retail investors, the lesson is simple: FOMO is not a strategy. SpaceX's rally has been historic, but buying at these levels requires believing the company can grow into a nearly $3 trillion valuation within a reasonable timeframe. If you're already holding, consider taking partial profits — locking in gains while maintaining exposure. If you're considering buying, dollar-cost averaging over weeks rather than buying all at once could protect you from a post-IPO pullback.

For the broader market, SpaceX's debut is a reminder that liquidity and narrative can drive valuations far beyond what fundamentals alone would justify. The company is genuinely extraordinary — but extraordinary companies can still become overvalued. Watch the lockup expiration in 180 days; that's when early employees and investors can sell, and that's often when the real price discovery begins.