Hezbollah Confident Any US-Iran Deal Will Include Lebanon, Politician Says

As diplomatic signals suggest a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding could be signed as soon as Sunday, one of the war's most volatile fronts is demanding to be included in any agreement: Lebanon.

Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia that opened a second front against Israel on March 2 in support of Tehran, said Friday it is confident that Iran will insist on Lebanon being included in any deal with the United States. Hezbollah politician Hassan Fadlallah told al-Manar TV that the group has "complete confidence in the Islamic Republic" and that it will insist any agreement includes "the file of Lebanon."

The statement is not just rhetoric. It reflects a structural reality of this war that any deal which addresses the Gulf conflict without resolving the fighting in Lebanon will be incomplete — and likely unsustainable.

Why Lebanon Is Not a Side Issue

Hezbollah entered the regional war on March 2, opening fire at Israel and prompting an Israeli offensive that has killed thousands of people in Lebanon. Israeli forces currently occupy swathes of southern Lebanon, with new airstrikes reported in several towns and villages on Friday.

Iranian officials have repeatedly insisted that an end to fighting in Lebanon must be part of any wider agreement. Last week, Mohsen Rezaei, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader, said Hezbollah had "made great sacrifices" in the war and that Lebanon "will be an inseparable part of any agreement and any ceasefire."

The logic is straightforward from Iran's perspective. Hezbollah is Iran's most powerful proxy in the region and the group that opened a front specifically to support Iran during the conflict. If Iran signs a deal that leaves Hezbollah fighting alone — or worse, accepts terms that require Hezbollah to disarm or withdraw — the credibility of Iran's entire proxy network is damaged. Future allies and proxies would think twice before supporting Tehran if Tehran might abandon them in a negotiation.

That calculation gives Hezbollah leverage that is easy to underestimate. The group is not a party to the U.S.-mediated talks between Lebanon and Israel. It has demanded that the Lebanese government quit the process entirely. And it rejected a U.S.-backed plan declared last week that would be contingent on the group ceasing fire and withdrawing its fighters from southern Lebanon.

The Problem With a Partial Deal

The gap between a Gulf-focused deal and a comprehensive agreement is where the risk lies. A Western source said a memorandum between the United States and Iran to halt the war in the Gulf could be signed as soon as Sunday, but that language is still being finalized and Iran is sticking to its position that the deal must also end fighting in Lebanon.

If the memorandum addresses only the Gulf — reopening the Strait of Hormuz, halting strikes on Iran, lifting some sanctions — without resolving the Lebanon front, several things happen simultaneously.

First, Hezbollah continues fighting, and Israel continues its offensive in southern Lebanon. The humanitarian crisis deepens, and the risk of escalation remains. A ceasefire in the Gulf that does not extend to Lebanon is a partial pause, not a resolution.

Second, the oil market relief that would follow a Gulf deal would be tempered by the continued instability in Lebanon. Insurance costs for regional shipping, supply chain rerouting, and risk premiums priced into energy contracts would not fully unwind as long as an active conflict front remains in the eastern Mediterranean.

Third, Iran's domestic politics become more complicated. Hardliners within Iran would view a deal that abandons Hezbollah as a betrayal. Iranian General Ali Abdollahi warned Thursday that if the United States attacked, "it will receive a harsher response than before, and the flames of war, in addition to creating insecurity in the region, will become more widespread and far-reaching." That rhetoric would intensify if Hezbollah's demands are excluded from a final agreement.

Israel's Red Lines

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said that any memorandum of understanding would need to include the removal of Tehran's enriched nuclear material and dismantling of missile infrastructure. Those are conditions that address Israel's strategic concerns about Iran's nuclear program, not the immediate fighting in Lebanon.

Israel's position on Lebanon is likely to be more rigid than its position on Iran. Hezbollah is an immediate military threat on Israel's northern border, and the Israeli government has invested significant military resources in its Lebanon campaign. Accepting a ceasefire that leaves Hezbollah's military infrastructure intact — its rocket arsenal, its tunnel network, its fighting positions in southern Lebanon — would be politically difficult for any Israeli government.

That sets up a three-way negotiation problem. Iran wants Lebanon included. Hezbollah wants the fighting to end on terms that preserve its military capacity. Israel wants Hezbollah's military capacity degraded. There is no obvious compromise that satisfies all three, and the Gulf deal that Trump is promising does not appear to have resolved this tension.

What This Means For You

The Lebanon dimension of the Iran deal is the part most likely to delay or derail an agreement. If you are watching oil prices and wondering why they have not dropped more on deal optimism, the answer may be that markets are pricing in the probability that a Gulf-only deal does not resolve the broader regional instability.

If you have investments in Middle East-exposed sectors — energy, shipping, defense — the distinction between a Gulf ceasefire and a comprehensive regional agreement matters enormously. A Gulf-only deal produces moderate relief. A comprehensive deal that includes Lebanon produces significant relief. No deal produces renewed escalation.

The timeline to watch is Sunday. If a memorandum is signed that includes Lebanon, it is a meaningful step toward de-escalation. If the memorandum is signed without Lebanon, or if it is delayed because the Lebanon question cannot be resolved, expect markets to recalibrate downward from the current deal-optimism pricing. The Hezbollah statement today is a reminder that the hardest negotiations have not yet happened.