The 4 MLB Teams Ready to Take Flight, Turn Season Around

With roughly six weeks of the MLB season in the books, four teams that started slowly are showing signs of life and positioning themselves for a turnaround. History suggests that teams within five games of a wild-card spot by Memorial Day have a realistic path to October.

The common thread among these teams is improved starting pitching. Three of the four have seen their rotation ERAs drop by more than a full run over the past three weeks, driven by healthier arms and better command. The fourth team's turnaround has been powered by an offense that finally woke up after a brutal April.

What makes these turnarounds sustainable is underlying metrics. All four teams have positive run differentials despite losing records, meaning they've been unlucky more than bad. Teams with positive run differentials and sub-.500 records historically regress toward .500 or better about 70% of the time over a full season.

The teams to watch: a pair of AL clubs that underperformed early due to bullpen meltdowns now being stabilized by returning relievers, and two NL teams whose young hitters are finding their stride after early-season slumps.

What This Means For You: If you're a fan of a team that started poorly, check the run differential before giving up on the season. If your team is outscoring opponents but losing close games, patience is warranted. If you bet on baseball, teams with positive run differentials and negative records are among the best value plays in the second half.